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Development and internal validation of a multivariable model to predict perinatal death in pregnancy hypertension

Payne, BA; Henk Groen, U; Ukah, V; Mark Anserminoa, J; Bhutta, Z; Grobman, W; Hall, DR; Hutcheon, JA; Magee, LA; von Dadelszen, P (2015) Development and internal validation of a multivariable model to predict perinatal death in pregnancy hypertension. Pregnancy Hypertension: An International Journal of Women's Cardiovascular Health, 5 (4). pp. 315-321. ISSN 2210-7789 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.preghy.2015.08.006
SGUL Authors: von Dadelszen, Peter Magee, Laura Ann

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Abstract

Objective To develop and internally validate a prognostic model for perinatal death that could guide community-based antenatal care of women with a hypertensive disorder of pregnancy (HDP) in low-resourced settings as part of a mobile health application. Study Design Using data from 1688 women (110 (6.5%) perinatal deaths) admitted to hospital after 32 weeks gestation with a HDP from five low-resourced countries in the miniPIERS prospective cohort, a logistic regression model to predict perinatal death was developed and internally validated. Model discrimination, calibration, and classification accuracy were assessed and compared with use of gestational age alone to determine prognosis. Main outcome measures: Stillbirth or neonatal death before hospital discharge. Results The final model included maternal age; a count of symptoms (0, 1 or ⩾ 2); and dipstick proteinuria. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.75 [95% CI 0.71 - 0.80]. The model correctly identified 42/110 (38.2%) additional cases as high-risk (probability >15%) of perinatal death compared with use of only gestational age <34 weeks at assessment with increased sensitivity (48.6% vs. 23.8%) and similar specificity (86.6% vs. 90.0%). Conclusion Using simple, routinely collected measures during antenatal care, we can identify women with a HDP who are at increased risk of perinatal death and who would benefit from transfer to facility-based care. This model requires external validation and assessment in an implementation study to confirm performance.

Item Type: Article
SGUL Research Institute / Research Centre: Academic Structure > Molecular and Clinical Sciences Research Institute (MCS)
Journal or Publication Title: Pregnancy Hypertension: An International Journal of Women's Cardiovascular Health
ISSN: 2210-7789
Dates:
DateEvent
28 August 2015Published
Publisher License: Creative Commons: Attribution-Noncommercial-No Derivative Works 4.0
URI: http://sgultest.da.ulcc.ac.uk/id/eprint/107547
Publisher's version: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.preghy.2015.08.006

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